Gold and silver have been marked down sharply over two days. If you have been shaken by the speed and magnitude, then that is the market makers' objective.
Perfectly said Alisdair. Thank you. Today is simply validation of what we saw coming. As Jessie Livermore said, ‘Be right, and sit tight’.
Another thought I have shared with my circle is be aware of the growing responsibility we will have to rebuild our communities once this fiat scam breaks. It falls to those who can… to do. And that means us. Try to not get shaken out. Hold firm.
If you feel comfortable, you can buy physical metal on these drops, if you can find any. I have no fear of the drop continuing for any length of time as Alisdair stated, they’re shaking out the skeptics and as soon as buyers (= Central Banks) start buying the price will stabilize and likely go up parabolically. At least I hope so 😊.
Keep on telling yourself what you know to be right & as backed up by Alasdair ........and don't let anyone shake you out of your position .....Stay the Course .
Thanks, Simon. Alasdair is not alone. I listen to Andy Schechtman and read Chris Irons (Quoth the Raven) all the time. Rick Rule, Jim Rickards, Don Durrett and several others. They all concur on gold and silver. They differ on Bitcoin. Alasdair hates it, several others are willing to wait and see.
I, for one, like Bitcoin. It is far cheaper and easier to transact than metals. Far cheaper to store, and in hardware wallets, apparently more secure. It is even more inflation resistant, with an absolute upper bound vs. above-ground gold increasing 3% or so per year.
There are downsides as well. Lack of anonymity, or at least difficulty with anonymity. Thousands of scams to avoid. Distant threat of quantum computing. But, on balance, probably as good a deal as metals. Good to keep as a hedge, for diversification, if only to be sure of keeping an eye in the space.
It’s gut wrenching stuff. However the fundamental macroeconomic conditions haven’t changed. It seems we are all experiencing the psychological multiplier effect of a loss rather than a gain in these turbulent markets. I am minded to remind that this community hold assets which are unleveraged (hopefully for our readers) and without counterparty risk. This is important during the same week when the US Fed baled out some of its banks to the sum of US$500bn and the US Treasury extended swap lines to Argentina in a move that likely went up in smoke. All of these actions have to be paid for eventually.
Yes. I’m sceptical. My personal view is that western governments betting on ( perhaps read ‘forlornly praying for’) growth will be disappointed as the real economy buckles under the pressure of fiscal drag at the very time that commercial banks reduce credit to the real economy and shrink their balances sheets. By fiscal drag I mean the drag of excessive taxation on the private sector, together with a bloated public sector that by definition is economically unproductive. Such is the level of the government taxation in UK and Europe that there are not the profits to reinvest in private businesses without assuming debt, which will likely be unavailable as the banks step back and withdraw credit lines and write off bad debts. We have seen this cycle many times before. Then the central banks step in and have to inject liquidity to prop up bank balance sheets at the same time that we have an economic slump in the real economy. The exam question is whether the injection of additional capital will lead to enduring inflation or if this new capital merely replaces the previous capital lost.
Think the $ 500 x Billion ( interim ..?? ) bail out is merely the tip of the iceberg given what will have to be done once some of the big boys start wobbling out of control . Come the time it will be Fleets of ' Helicopter Money ' on quadruple strength steroids .
As to what's gone on per Argentina and the Swap lines ......the mind boggles
Thank you Alasdair. I saw an opportunity to sell and take a profit, my brain reminded me of why I bought precious metals. Came to my senses and sold nothing. I've been through this before.
Still cannot buy a best value 1 oz silver Britannia from the Royal mint. Email me when in stock has been up for about three weeks now. Ditto cast silver bars.
Bullion by post has best value 1 oz silver Britannia available but for £62.36. A whopping drop of 64p from last week!
Or 1.01% if my maths is adequate. Yet the silver price is down about 7.7%
This correction is all noise. Gold Britannia's are about £240 over spot. The price is hardly dropping for retail buyers.
Reminds me of working in my Dad's shop in the late seventies. My job was to paint the special offers posters for the front window. One of best prices poster read, Jones' sausages, only 15p a pound. When people came in we would inform that'
" We've just run out" But we got our select sausages for 22p a pound.
Wonder if the Royal mint got the idea from my dad?
Interesting observations on the divergence of retail physical prices from 'market" prices. Not sure what it tells us about "the market". In the long run perhaps, physical will be right. Of course in the long run we will all be dead.
I read a lot of the Austrian economists, Peter Schiff, Adrian Day & Alasdair so I'm all in on physical Gold with 5% in mining stocks. I sold my house in 2022 & invested in gold. If I'm wrong then I'm going down with the ship.
Here is another view from a very large fund manager in the US
what say you ?
Does Gold Hedge Economic Downturns?
Wes Crill, PhD, Senior Client Solutions Director and Vice President, DFA
Some investors may view gold as a risk management asset. While its returns have been too volatile to serve as an effective safe haven or inflation hedge, some may view it as an asset to weather an economic downturn. But there’s not much evidence gold can fulfill this purpose.
Plotting quarterly gold spot price returns against US GDP changes reveals little relation between the two. Whether gold was up or down doesn’t appear connected to what was happening in the economy. Gold did gain in value during 17 of the 28 quarters with negative GDP growth, but so did US government bonds1. So, an investor with high-quality fixed income in their portfolio likely already has a measure of protection against economic contractions.
Markets tend to reflect expectations for the macroeconomy in advance. It’s not clear that adding a slug of gold to one’s portfolio provides additional protection against adverse economic developments.
I arrived to Gold after 40 years of head in sand after the 1980's crash . I had decided it was easier to earn and spend on girls and whisky. I have until now never increased value on anything outside the surgery , and that includes land if you account for maintenance and inflation. So being new even though a boomer i was easy to train that Gold is money / the rest is credit debt and crypto a ponzi scheme in the ether . Now at first because I have relatively little I thought I could sell and buy the swings. It didn't work Once you gain the contempt for Government currency that it deserves the swings are almost irrelevant It si weird to hear seaoned investment people ytalking about gold bubbles, You can not have a bubble in fundamental money. It is like saying there is a bubble in the air supply. I only need to sell 100grams every so often for household expenses
The paper price of gold seems to be much more powerful that physical gold. We just have to see if 4000 holds.
Alasdair has hinted at the idea that China now controls the gold price. If thats true then it's the Chinese taking the price down or standing aside while paper gold in the west takes the price down. China's interests and agenda may not be ours.
The idea that BRICS stands for anything, is probably delusional. Other than Russia and China, all the other BRICS joiners are simply in it for whatever advantage they can extract from the sponsors.
It seems clear that Alasdair's basic thesis remain intact: the eventual demise of the current FIAT regime. But nobody knows when that will happen and history just tells us that while one FIAT regime collapses, another rises to take it's place.
I took my profits in silver. I will maintain my gold position for now. For myself, the more one has to treat Gold as a trading venue, the less interesting it is.
Alasdair's " Hint " at China being in control of the Gold Market is as usual absoloutley correct - as is their control of the ' Silver Market ' - which has been a largely hidden fact for many years , but which is now no longer out of sight behind the curtain .
As regards " All the other BRICS Joiners only being in it for what ever advantage they can extract " - I think this almost entirely misses the real fundemental point here . Whilst it is completely understandable ( & human nature ) to extract what ever advantage you can out of a given situation / set of circumstances ..etc - My personal belief and I think one which is held by a lot of other observers , is that the ' BRICS Joiners ' overwhelming reasoning to do what they have is to escape the current status quo - per the boot on the throat level of financial tyranny that the U'S. Hegemon ( + regime' change / colour revolutions / military intervention ) has been happy to use to subjugate most all other country's due to the dollar being the world's reserve currency , and the world's banking systems / bond & forex markets essentially being under complete U.S. control ( least ways thus far ) ....and thereby and understandably the ' BRICS Joiners ' ideally want out and a.s.a.p. , but haven't had an opportunity to remove their shackles ....up until now that is .
Where BRICS as a whole is concerned , we should look at it as if all of the BRICS nation's ae being held in a Financial Prisoner Of War Camp ( Stalag Luft 13 ) and that Russia & China are the leaders of the ' Escape Committee ' who organise and action the digging of the tunnel from the Huts to the razor wire perimeter fence and than manage to cut a huge hole in it out to the woods & freedom . The ' BRICS Joiners ' are simply the followers of Russia & China ( the other POW's ) who now when presented with the entrance to the tunnel and the huge hole in the fence , do the only sensible thing ........Get out while the going's good and as fast as they possibly can and run like hell away from their Jailers .
Thanks for your reassurance Alasdair!
Perfectly said Alisdair. Thank you. Today is simply validation of what we saw coming. As Jessie Livermore said, ‘Be right, and sit tight’.
Another thought I have shared with my circle is be aware of the growing responsibility we will have to rebuild our communities once this fiat scam breaks. It falls to those who can… to do. And that means us. Try to not get shaken out. Hold firm.
Couldn't agree more ...." Sit tight & be right " has to be the mantra that we all stick rigidly to from here on out
If you feel comfortable, you can buy physical metal on these drops, if you can find any. I have no fear of the drop continuing for any length of time as Alisdair stated, they’re shaking out the skeptics and as soon as buyers (= Central Banks) start buying the price will stabilize and likely go up parabolically. At least I hope so 😊.
A good time to add to positions in some of the miners, too.
Yes even if you wanted to trade now it woukd be absudly dangerous coming back in >>sorry sir. No gold .
Exactly
Exactly what I have been telling myself, but it is reassuring to hear it from you.
Keep on telling yourself what you know to be right & as backed up by Alasdair ........and don't let anyone shake you out of your position .....Stay the Course .
Thanks, Simon. Alasdair is not alone. I listen to Andy Schechtman and read Chris Irons (Quoth the Raven) all the time. Rick Rule, Jim Rickards, Don Durrett and several others. They all concur on gold and silver. They differ on Bitcoin. Alasdair hates it, several others are willing to wait and see.
I, for one, like Bitcoin. It is far cheaper and easier to transact than metals. Far cheaper to store, and in hardware wallets, apparently more secure. It is even more inflation resistant, with an absolute upper bound vs. above-ground gold increasing 3% or so per year.
There are downsides as well. Lack of anonymity, or at least difficulty with anonymity. Thousands of scams to avoid. Distant threat of quantum computing. But, on balance, probably as good a deal as metals. Good to keep as a hedge, for diversification, if only to be sure of keeping an eye in the space.
Finally someone with real insights, as well as a relevant AND timely comment ! Thanks Sir.
It’s gut wrenching stuff. However the fundamental macroeconomic conditions haven’t changed. It seems we are all experiencing the psychological multiplier effect of a loss rather than a gain in these turbulent markets. I am minded to remind that this community hold assets which are unleveraged (hopefully for our readers) and without counterparty risk. This is important during the same week when the US Fed baled out some of its banks to the sum of US$500bn and the US Treasury extended swap lines to Argentina in a move that likely went up in smoke. All of these actions have to be paid for eventually.
Yes. I’m sceptical. My personal view is that western governments betting on ( perhaps read ‘forlornly praying for’) growth will be disappointed as the real economy buckles under the pressure of fiscal drag at the very time that commercial banks reduce credit to the real economy and shrink their balances sheets. By fiscal drag I mean the drag of excessive taxation on the private sector, together with a bloated public sector that by definition is economically unproductive. Such is the level of the government taxation in UK and Europe that there are not the profits to reinvest in private businesses without assuming debt, which will likely be unavailable as the banks step back and withdraw credit lines and write off bad debts. We have seen this cycle many times before. Then the central banks step in and have to inject liquidity to prop up bank balance sheets at the same time that we have an economic slump in the real economy. The exam question is whether the injection of additional capital will lead to enduring inflation or if this new capital merely replaces the previous capital lost.
Think the $ 500 x Billion ( interim ..?? ) bail out is merely the tip of the iceberg given what will have to be done once some of the big boys start wobbling out of control . Come the time it will be Fleets of ' Helicopter Money ' on quadruple strength steroids .
As to what's gone on per Argentina and the Swap lines ......the mind boggles
With the mantra of..buy the Dip, its strange WHO.. would sell SO much...gold or silver
paper, I know
So...someone...is Front running..something..thats coming down...somewhere...!!
I hope, that the..MINERS...go on STRIKE = NO forward selling to the "short bankers"
Have Bankers forgotten...WHAT...Jesus does to the moneychangers....??
= NO Bankers in Heaven......ha ha ha ha....+ very few..LAwyers too....))))
... don't forget the quacks and politicians.
Politicians...think that they are God...and already in Heaven...
but yes...haven´t seen any...this year...)
I can hardly think of any politicians who will be being invited up to the
' Penthouse ' anytimesoon ....for them it's a one way street straight down into the fiery pits of hell - Good riddance to all of the bastards
Can you imagine smelling sulphur a second after your croak?
One good reason I am a paid subscriber to your substack. Reasons to be cheerful. Ian Dury and the blockheads.
Thank you Alasdair. I saw an opportunity to sell and take a profit, my brain reminded me of why I bought precious metals. Came to my senses and sold nothing. I've been through this before.
Good Man , thank God you sniffed the smelling salts just in time - try not to doubt yourself
and get tempted to do the wrong thing the next time we hit a bit of bad weather
Meh! I say!
Yes the spot price of silver is down.
Still cannot buy a best value 1 oz silver Britannia from the Royal mint. Email me when in stock has been up for about three weeks now. Ditto cast silver bars.
Bullion by post has best value 1 oz silver Britannia available but for £62.36. A whopping drop of 64p from last week!
Or 1.01% if my maths is adequate. Yet the silver price is down about 7.7%
This correction is all noise. Gold Britannia's are about £240 over spot. The price is hardly dropping for retail buyers.
Reminds me of working in my Dad's shop in the late seventies. My job was to paint the special offers posters for the front window. One of best prices poster read, Jones' sausages, only 15p a pound. When people came in we would inform that'
" We've just run out" But we got our select sausages for 22p a pound.
Wonder if the Royal mint got the idea from my dad?
Meh!
Interesting observations on the divergence of retail physical prices from 'market" prices. Not sure what it tells us about "the market". In the long run perhaps, physical will be right. Of course in the long run we will all be dead.
I read a lot of the Austrian economists, Peter Schiff, Adrian Day & Alasdair so I'm all in on physical Gold with 5% in mining stocks. I sold my house in 2022 & invested in gold. If I'm wrong then I'm going down with the ship.
Brett. Following the best of the best sir. You are about to be a VERY wealthy man. Enjoy living on a nice big yacht with a staff :-)
I’m quite happy it’s down, gold ruffles feathers when it climbs. If it could just drop some more my Christmas bonus is round the corner.
Hey Mate
Here is another view from a very large fund manager in the US
what say you ?
Does Gold Hedge Economic Downturns?
Wes Crill, PhD, Senior Client Solutions Director and Vice President, DFA
Some investors may view gold as a risk management asset. While its returns have been too volatile to serve as an effective safe haven or inflation hedge, some may view it as an asset to weather an economic downturn. But there’s not much evidence gold can fulfill this purpose.
Plotting quarterly gold spot price returns against US GDP changes reveals little relation between the two. Whether gold was up or down doesn’t appear connected to what was happening in the economy. Gold did gain in value during 17 of the 28 quarters with negative GDP growth, but so did US government bonds1. So, an investor with high-quality fixed income in their portfolio likely already has a measure of protection against economic contractions.
Markets tend to reflect expectations for the macroeconomy in advance. It’s not clear that adding a slug of gold to one’s portfolio provides additional protection against adverse economic developments.
Completely agree - this had all the hall marks of being a classic move to rattle the weak hands and get them to let go of their positions
I arrived to Gold after 40 years of head in sand after the 1980's crash . I had decided it was easier to earn and spend on girls and whisky. I have until now never increased value on anything outside the surgery , and that includes land if you account for maintenance and inflation. So being new even though a boomer i was easy to train that Gold is money / the rest is credit debt and crypto a ponzi scheme in the ether . Now at first because I have relatively little I thought I could sell and buy the swings. It didn't work Once you gain the contempt for Government currency that it deserves the swings are almost irrelevant It si weird to hear seaoned investment people ytalking about gold bubbles, You can not have a bubble in fundamental money. It is like saying there is a bubble in the air supply. I only need to sell 100grams every so often for household expenses
Nobody really knows whats going on.
The paper price of gold seems to be much more powerful that physical gold. We just have to see if 4000 holds.
Alasdair has hinted at the idea that China now controls the gold price. If thats true then it's the Chinese taking the price down or standing aside while paper gold in the west takes the price down. China's interests and agenda may not be ours.
The idea that BRICS stands for anything, is probably delusional. Other than Russia and China, all the other BRICS joiners are simply in it for whatever advantage they can extract from the sponsors.
It seems clear that Alasdair's basic thesis remain intact: the eventual demise of the current FIAT regime. But nobody knows when that will happen and history just tells us that while one FIAT regime collapses, another rises to take it's place.
I took my profits in silver. I will maintain my gold position for now. For myself, the more one has to treat Gold as a trading venue, the less interesting it is.
Alasdair's " Hint " at China being in control of the Gold Market is as usual absoloutley correct - as is their control of the ' Silver Market ' - which has been a largely hidden fact for many years , but which is now no longer out of sight behind the curtain .
As regards " All the other BRICS Joiners only being in it for what ever advantage they can extract " - I think this almost entirely misses the real fundemental point here . Whilst it is completely understandable ( & human nature ) to extract what ever advantage you can out of a given situation / set of circumstances ..etc - My personal belief and I think one which is held by a lot of other observers , is that the ' BRICS Joiners ' overwhelming reasoning to do what they have is to escape the current status quo - per the boot on the throat level of financial tyranny that the U'S. Hegemon ( + regime' change / colour revolutions / military intervention ) has been happy to use to subjugate most all other country's due to the dollar being the world's reserve currency , and the world's banking systems / bond & forex markets essentially being under complete U.S. control ( least ways thus far ) ....and thereby and understandably the ' BRICS Joiners ' ideally want out and a.s.a.p. , but haven't had an opportunity to remove their shackles ....up until now that is .
Where BRICS as a whole is concerned , we should look at it as if all of the BRICS nation's ae being held in a Financial Prisoner Of War Camp ( Stalag Luft 13 ) and that Russia & China are the leaders of the ' Escape Committee ' who organise and action the digging of the tunnel from the Huts to the razor wire perimeter fence and than manage to cut a huge hole in it out to the woods & freedom . The ' BRICS Joiners ' are simply the followers of Russia & China ( the other POW's ) who now when presented with the entrance to the tunnel and the huge hole in the fence , do the only sensible thing ........Get out while the going's good and as fast as they possibly can and run like hell away from their Jailers .