US bond crisis is not alone

I’ve been warning about higher US T-bond yields for some time. Now things are on a knife-edge. Moody’s downgrade and Trump’s “big beautiful spending bill” could tip them over.

“Just let that sink in for a moment. The S&P is more overvalued than it has ever been relative to the long bond than at any time in the last 40-years, and is quite possibly the most overvalued in history.”

You don’t break a 4-decade downtrend without consequences. Yet this is what US treasury yields did post-covid.

And having done so spectacularly, all we have seen is some consolidation, before the prospect of yields rising even more. This is clear from our second chart, zoning in on post-covid developments.