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Timing the crash

MacleodFinance is giving the fiat currency system about 18 months before it dies. This article explains our reasoning, and the sequence of events as best as can be judged.

Alasdair Macleod's avatar
Alasdair Macleod
Sep 16, 2026
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Timing the crash

MacleodFinance is giving the fiat currency system about 18 months before it dies. This article explains our reasoning, and the sequence of events as best as can be judged.

“The point to grasp is that in a debt trap, bond yields tend to rise exponentially, and politics prevents a solution.”

Introduction

Let us start with the economic background. The first thing to notice is that there’s a commodity bull market underway with the World Bank’s Total Index up over 30% this year, and Bloomberg’s commodity index up 48%. This is usually described as evidence of a commodity cycle, but a better description is that it reflects a declining purchasing power in the US dollar in which they are priced and of all other fiat currencies in our dollar-based system. We need to bear this in mind with what is to follow.

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