The end of Pax Americana
Post-WW2 relative stability policed by the US and its dollar is at an end. A new world order is emerging without the fiat dollar and the monetary system that defers to it.
The Thucydides Trap
A geopolitical change such as the one currently evolving before our eyes is rarely without conflict. The tectonic clash between America and emerging Asian powers acting in partnership is such an event. Aptly described as a Thucydides Trap, the battles in Ukraine and Iran echo how the rise of Athens instilled irrational fears in Sparta leading to the Peloponnesian Wars, which Sparta lost. If it was not so, today the Ukrainians would not be being butchered, and nor arguably would the crisis in what we call the Middle East, but the Asians call West Asia have descended into a major conflict against Iran.
In the former, like the Spartans the Europeans are fearful of Russia’s territorial ambitions. But the issue is far larger than that due to her partnership with China, which is now the most productive and powerful economy on earth. And the Israelis, whose recent heritage is European are fighting a similar battle against Asian Muslim forces, and now specifically Iran which is in partnership with Russia and China.
The fight is against a new emerging world order. Militarily, the Asians have evolved their technologies and strategies to cope with the threats of today, while America and NATO have been stuck in the past, their forces unsuited for modern warfare. If Thucydides was alive today along with Pyrrhus of Epirus, he of the Pyrrhic victory, there would be little doubt about what they would say about the current situation.
Without their guidance we can make two observations. The first is that the old order will be replaced with the new, and the second is that the intervening struggle is not over, but with the US, Israeli, and NATO reserves of armaments running out, it may be over soon — perhaps in a matter of months.
