The commodity squeeze worsens

Spot oil prices have yet to adjust to the oil shock emanating from the war against Iran. There’s further bad news: Hormuz is unlikely to open until the US admits defeat.

For a war that was originally going to last only three or four days, it is clear that the US has badly miscalculated. America is now over 100 days into it and counting. The odds in favour of it succeeding any time soon are diminishingly small. Not only is it not going to plan, but America’s options are increasingly restricted.

We can forget any ground invasion which would be required for a win, however pyrrhic. Temperatures are now too high for troops not climatised for them. The US and Israel are running low on ordinance, the former having depleted stocks by supplying Europe and Ukraine while Iran has an arsenal accumulated over the last 47 years and particularly since 2003 when the US destroyed Iraq.

Furthermore, there are credible reports that Iran’s hypersonic Fattah missiles are technologically superior to US and Israeli weapons, travel at Mach 10—15 and are virtually impossible to shoot down. Iran also has the backing of China and Russia, guaranteeing accurate targeting and technological input.

Read on for an increasingly certain outcome…