The White House has confirmed that President Trump will meet his opposite numbers from Russia and China on the sidelines of the APEC summit. I wrote about this in an article for Substack subscribers on 20th October, when it was first mooted. In that article, I suggested it would be compared with the Yalta conference at the end of WW2, when Europe was divided up between the victors.
I also pointed out that this is no Yalta. Yalta was a negotiation. This meeting is not, despite Trump probably thinking it is, but he has no cards to play. He probably believes that he can wring some concessions out of China on rare earth exports for example, but I’m reminded of the position of lobbyists trying to get policy changes out of President “silent” Cal Coolidge. Coolidge said that he would let the lobbyist talk until he ran out of things to say, at which point Coolidge would simply stand up bid him goodbye. The lobbyist leaves with nothing.
I think that encapsulates Xi’s negotiating style with the Americans, particularly if Trump threatens a renewed attack on Iran if he doesn’t get his way. In short, I think Trump’s Shenzhen visit will turn out to be fruitless, and he will be further frustrated.
It might give us some timing on an escalation of the war against Iran, either with a
