PMs ready for next move

Quiet conditions in precious metals belie explosive upside potential, given a government bond market crisis developing in all major currencies.

In quiet trading, the current consolidation phase in precious metals extended this week. This morning in Europe, gold at $3330 was down $6 from last Friday’s close, and silver at $38.00 was barely changed. Gold has now been trending sideways for four months, half of 2025 to date while silver has outperformed with the gold/silver ratio falling from 105 to 87.

A notable feature in these otherwise unremarkable conditions has been stand for deliveries on Comex. Since the end of July, a whopping 102.8 tonnes of gold have been stood for delivery, taking the total so far this year to 873.6 tonnes. In silver, over the same periods, 267.5 tonnes and 8,665 tonnes have stood for delivery respectively.

Those in the know are hoarding physical at the expense of paper. But in the very short-term, so far as prices are concerned, the last trade for September options is next Tuesday with calls expiring, providing a strong incentive for market makers to mark gold and silver lower.

This short-term stuff will prove to be irrelevant. We are in the eye of a financial hurricane, and this is set to change.