Iran is a bridge too far

Trump believed Iran would be a walkover, as does the mainstream media. But geopolitical experts beg to differ, and by her actions to protect herself from the fall out, so does China.

The chart above shows that priced in gold, oil is only at 26% of its long-term value, suggesting that in real terms it should rise by 300% to return to pre-Bretton Woods prices in real terms, last seen as recently as 2014. Dollar debasement will only add to this.

It is against this background that we must consider the consequences of the effective closure of the Straits of Hormuz. At the current gold/dollar exchange rate, that would be an oil price of about $400.

This is not so much a forecast, more an indication of what has been unleashed by the Trump administration attacking Iran. It will probably go down in history as the most