Interview with Paul Buitink
This interview with Paul of Reinvent Money was conducted last Thursday and focuses on the war against Iran, its likely outcome, and consequences for markets.
“Paul Buitink talks to former banker and stockbroker, precious metals expert and author Alasdair Macleod about the war in the Middle East. Alasdair thinks US and Israel can't win this, other than a Pyrrhic victory. Iran is prepared and will fight an asymmetric war including causing maximum damage onto the world, for example by closing off the Strait of Hormuz.
”Alasdair expects the dollar to surge in the short run but in the longer run he expects the West to collapse, massive inflation to arrive and gold, silver and commodities to profit from the conflict.
Recorded on the 5th of March.”
Follow Alasdair here:
Follow Paul on X here:
https://x.com/paulbuitink
Timestamps:
0:00 Intro
1:54 Who will win the war in the Middle East
10:09 Was the conflict priced into gold and silver prices?
12:29 Who will the conflict looking at markets?
22:18 Insuring the Strait of Hormuz
25:17 The role of China and Russia
34:25 Record low open interest in paper silver
39:00 China's banks dumping treasuries
42:10 Should you rotate from gold into oil and other commodities?
45:52 Expect massive inflation
49:20 How should you adjust your portfolio
Here's a Barron maxim:
The purpose of war is to bring about a profound political change in the enemy's society.
Short of that, the war is a failure. The US/Israel are not going to invade and occupy Iran in order to bring about a profound political change. In fact, I don't know what the war aim was. Does anyone know...besides punishing the Iranians and making them bitter enemies for decades to come? Plus, if the Iranians truly had no intention of building a bomb, they certainly will have it now.
Excellent ( as ever ) - thank you / Simon .