At 14.32, the difficulty USA faces includes moving from the recent and long-ago past to the present situation in silver. Western countries must face up to the supply-demand being different than was thought in USA.
That is going to become a monetary situation.
The issue started with the outdated views from coin-shop traders, which as stackers we might sympathize with - but turns out their silver wasn't just coming from Idaho, Nevada and Alaska.
The long-ago situation with Idaho mines producing a uncirculated stack of silver Eagle dollars in USA is not relevant any more, and indeed the stack of junk silver in Western countries is far smaller than in decades past. It has mostly been melted down. USA still produced more silver than it consumed or exported up to 2023 - but that relied upon imported ores to a degree not usually appreciated.
Now, the imports of silver into USA as in decades past and any re-export have been overtaken by current events. Simply put, China consumes more silver every year.
So we're quite suddenly back to the meaning of the existing reality, which is not news at all in China, of most global silver being refined in China from other ores. Despite China using more (industrial) silver as well as refining over 60% of global silver, the USA simply didn't notice.
Earlier understandings especially from USA perspectives relying upon US mines or even those imported silver ores into USA suddenly have become utterly out-dated.
It seems it's not just price volatility, or gold melting, that has now interrupted Western silver refining - any internal info Western silver refiners once relied upon must now, suddenly, become rapidly less relevant to them. In fact, all the internal signals in Western silver marketplaces are being altered. The situation developing during 2025 wasn't simply tariff chaos.
The squeezes and other activity in Chinese silver marketplaces now dominate the global market. Yes, Chinese government might like cheaper silver - but may have to wait this out as other matters arise first.
Because listening to their recent spokespersons and advisors talking their books, it is clear that Western bullion banks with both gold and silver books abruptly find themselves in very different positions. Flows have changed. Stocks are draining away. Their figures, like the refiners', aren't telling them what is going on any more.
Surely the long-term Chinese interest is to put various squeezes up or down on these banks or the Comex to more and more determine silver then gold prices in terms of one another and of other tangibles China must import. It might get very wild. Whatever silver numbers emerge from the dust of March and May will be a roadsign to an uncomfortable new bullion banking reality nobody planned for. We don't have years to crank up new supplies.
If the dollar goes down half as fast as predicted, there won't be any incentive for people to go to work, will there?
At 14.32, the difficulty USA faces includes moving from the recent and long-ago past to the present situation in silver. Western countries must face up to the supply-demand being different than was thought in USA.
That is going to become a monetary situation.
The issue started with the outdated views from coin-shop traders, which as stackers we might sympathize with - but turns out their silver wasn't just coming from Idaho, Nevada and Alaska.
The long-ago situation with Idaho mines producing a uncirculated stack of silver Eagle dollars in USA is not relevant any more, and indeed the stack of junk silver in Western countries is far smaller than in decades past. It has mostly been melted down. USA still produced more silver than it consumed or exported up to 2023 - but that relied upon imported ores to a degree not usually appreciated.
Now, the imports of silver into USA as in decades past and any re-export have been overtaken by current events. Simply put, China consumes more silver every year.
As Alasdair outlined, the primary silver miners are mostly in Peru and Mexico - not in USA - and are selling to China, but not only that - they also have developed substantial refining capacity in those two countries now. These must therefore either be unused, or are used for doré. There are other interesting local twists like the cartels, the unofficial mines, the position on preventing new mines being opened... and investors must watch the silver miners reports to find out what we can about all these. Those primary miners produce only 30% of world's silver. There is no way some Mexican and Peruvian people don't know all about this. Yet nobody will ever declare their totals in silver refining and exports.
So we're quite suddenly back to the meaning of the existing reality, which is not news at all in China, of most global silver being refined in China from other ores. Despite China using more (industrial) silver as well as refining over 60% of global silver, the USA simply didn't notice.
Earlier understandings especially from USA perspectives relying upon US mines or even those imported silver ores into USA suddenly have become utterly out-dated.
It seems it's not just price volatility, or gold melting, that has now interrupted Western silver refining - any internal info Western silver refiners once relied upon must now, suddenly, become rapidly less relevant to them. In fact, all the internal signals in Western silver marketplaces are being altered. The situation developing during 2025 wasn't simply tariff chaos.
The squeezes and other activity in Chinese silver marketplaces now dominate the global market. Yes, Chinese government might like cheaper silver - but may have to wait this out as other matters arise first.
Because listening to their recent spokespersons and advisors talking their books, it is clear that Western bullion banks with both gold and silver books abruptly find themselves in very different positions. Flows have changed. Stocks are draining away. Their figures, like the refiners', aren't telling them what is going on any more.
Surely the long-term Chinese interest is to put various squeezes up or down on these banks or the Comex to more and more determine silver then gold prices in terms of one another and of other tangibles China must import. It might get very wild. Whatever silver numbers emerge from the dust of March and May will be a roadsign to an uncomfortable new bullion banking reality nobody planned for. We don't have years to crank up new supplies.
And that would have monetary implications.