Gold and the reflation trade
Trump is planning massive reflation in 2026, and other G7 countries will follow. It will undermine the fiat dollar, leading to higher bond yields and higher gold prices.
At the US-Saudi Investment forum, President Trump publicly told his treasury secretary that he must fire Jay Powell, accusing him of being incompetent. He was only half joking, the other half being deadly serious. Trump is a spendthrift, a property developer to whom cheap finance is his lifeblood. And his advisors see a stalling economy, demanding stimulus. Trump’s response is to pay $2,000 to every US citizen labelled as tariff dividends.
We can expect other G7 countries to follow suit, leading to a global reflation move, undermining the value of their currencies
At the same time, a deteriorating budget deficit is forecast by the IMF to hit 7.9% of GDP in 2026. But there is a perfect storm brewing in bond markets. Not only is the
