First half 2025 PMs summary

It’s been a spectacular 2025 for precious metals so far. Will it continue into H2? With fiat currencies losing credibility, the answer is a resounding YES

In quiet trading during a week foreshortened by US Independence Day, gold has held up well, while silver has been squeezed higher. In European trading this morning, gold was $4,340, up $65 from last Friday’s close and silver at $36.80 was up 86 cents.

Monday was the last trading session of the first half of this calendar year, and precious metals have beaten the socks off all other investment categories. Platinum is up 47%, palladium 24%, gold 23%, and silver 22.7%. Even copper previously recognised as monetary in coinage was up 21%.

On behalf of their clients, portfolio managers hold almost none of these categories or their derivatives. Their mindsets are stuck in Nasdaq, up 6%, the S&P up 4%, and the 30-year T-bond up 1%. On these numbers, no one appears to be complaining to their managers —yet.

But there is a silent cohort which is losing big money: foreign investors who own nearly $40 trillion invested in dollar-denominated deposits and underlying financial assets. The dollar’s trade weighted index has declined a net 10.7% since 1 January, wiping out modest gains in equities and bonds. The TWI’s chart is shown next:

For now, against other currencies the dollar appears to be in free-fall. And it is no comfort to foreigners that President Trump is racking up more debt and calling for a lower dollar and lower interest rates. Foreigners will increasingly realise the prospect of currency losses is wiping out the value of underlying financial investments. The prospect of a dollar cascading lower is highly likely when $40 trillion seeks an exit.