First gold, then markets migrating East
Goodbye to Western paper. Moving in plain sight, China has set up a new market in Hong Kong ready to take over from London and New York when the dollar dies.
First, let’s look briefly at what happened to gold in the 1973—1974 OPEC crisis.
Note that gold drifted lower when the oil price was hiked by 66% by OPEC led by Sheik Yamani. Having traded down to $90 in late-November, it then began to rise before Yamani hiked the price even further in early-January 1974 to $11.65. Gold went on to double by the year-end. If this was repeated today, we would see gold nearly doubling to $7,750 in less than four months before going on to over $8,000 in just twelve.
Food for thought, not a forecast.
Now to today…
Having shaken out the speculators, the PBOC and China’s commercial banks have taken the opportunity to acquire significant quantities of bullion. In 2026 up to May, China imported 692 tonnes of non-monetary gold, with May’s figure of 163 tonnes the highest monthly total for over a year. We have yet to see June’s total but there’s every reason to believe that this rate of gold imports has continued.
Monetary gold is not recorded in customs figures. So far this year, this has amounted to an additional 40 tonnes to end-June, representing sales of foreign currencies by the PBOC, almost all dollars, to the tune of about $60 billion. But that’s not all. She also imported 1,626 tones of silver in Q1, selling a further $4 billion. Add in the non-monetary gold, ridding the banks of a further $100bn up to May.
To this activity we can add other base metals and commodities which she has been buying such as copper. Add in sulphuric acid and fertilisers etc. which she no longer exports for dollars. Perhaps China sees this chart and understands the implications:
