Could gold fall sharply?

The purpose of this article is to examine whether this can happen, and if so under what conditions.

One of my paid subscribers sent me the following message:

“Hi Alasdair. Some pundits (such as Henrik Zeberg) are forecasting a market melt-up (e.g., S&P 500 steadily approaching the 7,000 level) in the next three to eight months, to be followed by a massive market correction of 50 percent or more due to overvaluation. In this environment, Zeberg and others are predicting that the dollar, in the short term, will rally strongly (perhaps even as high as 140) as investors flee to safety, causing precious metal prices to fall sharply. The final stage, according to this theory, is that gold and silver will then begin to rebuild and will move to much higher prices in the not-too-distant future. I would love to know whether you agree or disagree with any or all of this thesis.”

This is my response